January inflation

I have been monitoring inflation more closely since the borders were closed. The graph shows monthly food inflation for each January since 2009. The record increases from August to November in comparable month-on-month change in food inflation appears to have steadied. It does not mean that prices are falling which they aren’t but it does appear that the shock from the broder closure appears to have steadied for now. Perhaps because the costs of the extra restrictions have been incorporated into prices.

Will still be interesting to continue to monitor prices especially once we get to May and June if the borders are still closed as that is typically when inventory from the last harvest gets very low.

When will the balloon pop?

February 2020 Nigeria Economic Update

What's up with the NSE?

Inflation shoots?

Over the last few months I have been tracking food inflation more closely especially with regards to the border closures. If you recall we had the worst August, September, October, and November since 2009 when you compare corresponding monthly food inflation.

The NBS just released the December inflation report and are those little shoots I see? The headline number still rose but the monthly food inflation was relatively not so bad. Worse than the last two years but no so bad compared to other Decembers since 2009.

Of course the borders are still closed. Could this be because the effects of the border closure are fading away and we have settled at a new equilibrium? Could it be that demand over the holidays was muted? Could it be just a blip in the data? The watch continues.

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